Rochester, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

226
FXUS61 KBUF 250959
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
559 AM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast update.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wet and cool conditions expected today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Wet and cool conditions expected today.

A potent shortwave trough and associated surface low will cross the
eastern Great Lakes today. Deep moisture and increasing lift along a
tight thermal gradient oriented northwest to southeast across the
region will bring a soaking rainfall to the region which maybe
moderate to heavy at times. That said...latest NAM/HRRR/Ensembles
also advertise a fairly tight precipitation gradient on the
northeastern flank of the low. This will leave much of the North
Country and the St. Lawrence Valley dry but cloudy and cool.
Rainfall amounts on the order of 1.0-1.5 inches will be
possible. This will especially be the case across the Niagara
Frontier and east-southeast across Finger Lakes region where
the best forcing/lift will be found. Within this corridor expect
some area creeks and streams to see some modest rises as well
as some local ponding in poor drainage areas.

The area of low pressure will exit off to east and southeast by this
evening, with the steadier and heavier precipitation winding down.
With its departure drier conditions will take hold tonight as high
pressure settles in behind the system.

Dry weather and a gradual warming trend Sunday through Monday
as high pressure will reside across the eastern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Today, showers will continue for much of the day as low
pressure passes just to the south of the WNY area. Some of the
showers will have localized downpours and an embedded
thunderstorm also possible. CIGs will continue to lower,
dropping to IFR levels by mid morning for all TAF sites south of
Lake Ontario. Some higher terrain areas south of Lake Ontario
will have periods of LIFR CIGs for the afternoon hours.
Reductions in VSBY to MVFR and at times IFR can be expected with
heavier showers and mist/patchy fog.

Tonight, organized showers will taper off during the early evening,
but low level moisture will continue the potential for
drizzle/mist/scattered showers through the evening. Lowered
CIGs/VSBYs will continue from afternoon levels into the mid evening
period before improving as drier air moves into the region, and
ridging starts to increase. Most locations south of Lake Ontario
will improve to MVFR and the VFR through the night. The exception to
this being the higher terrain areas near the NY/PA border where IFR
CIGs will continue through most of the night.

For ART, it is expected that areas east and northeast of Lake
Ontario will remain dry with VFR conditions through tonight. If
showers push a bit farther east, then some brief MVFR conditions
will be possible. The best timing for this would be from the mid
afternoon through the mid evening hours.

East to northeast winds are expected through tonight for all TAF
sites. The exception to this will be for JHW where the closer
proximity to the passing sfc low will cause veering winds from
SE to SW to NW to NE through the day and into tonight.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Restrictions possible with scattered rain
showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Pressure gradient will tighten as an area of low pressure slides
southeast across the lower Great Lakes region today. This will cause
E to NE winds to freshen during this time period with Small Craft
Advisories in place for our southern nearshore zones on the western
half of Lake Ontario.

As the low moves southeast of the lower Great Lakes by this evening,
a freshening NE breeze is possible on at least our southern Lake
Erie nearshore zone, bringing the potential for a brief period of
small craft conditions (mainly winds) through tonight.

High pressure will then build across the lower Great Lakes region
late tonight and Sunday through Monday, bringing a period of mainly
light breezes and flat to near flat wave conditions for the second
half of the weekend in to the start of the new work week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ043.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AR
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AR